Public Comment

The more than two-months of mass protests over the death of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s so-called Morality Police for allegedly allowing wisps of hair to show beneath her hijab or head scarf has precipitated a nationwide movement that calls for the overthrow of Iran’s theocratic regime. This is something quite new in Iran. Back in 2009, Iranians protested by the hundreds of thousands in support of reformist presidential candidates Mpussavi and Karroubi, and they were outraged when Ahmadinejad was declared the winner and assumed Iran’s presidency. Today, however, the current rebellion, a leaderless movement coming mainly from women and the young generation, who make up over 60% of Iran’s population, no longer wants reform. Instead, they want revolution and an overthrow of the theocracy of the mullahs. 

What are the chances for this? Interestingly, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is at this point extremely ill and reportedly near death. Protesters have made it clear that they will never accept Khamenei’s son as his successor as Supreme Leader. It seems clear to me that if the Supreme Leader dies in the next few months, that will bring about the end of the theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran. 

But what will come next? The popular movement is powerful, but, being leaderless, it offers no clues as to how it would proceed after the downfall of the mullahs. In the aftermath of an overthrow of the mullahs, the Revolutionary Guard will have a major role in determining Iran’s future. With their strong economic and political hold on Iran’s power structure, the Revolutionary Guard may well be the best positioned movement in Iran to shape the new directions after the theocracy is rejected. But what will they do? How will the Revolutionary Guard position itself as it deals with a revolution coming from the people? Will they simply pay lip service to the people’s aspirations for democracy, while attempting to solidify their hold on power? That is the question.