Extra

After three active weeks, Donald Trump’s fourth week in the oval office was marked by fewer executive order and several notable failures. New data showed inflation rising. Trump’s immigration initiative stalled. And Trump’s foreign policy alienated our allies. Looming in the background is the possibility of a March government shutdown. 

The Economy: Donald Trump was elected president because of his promise to fix the economy. On February 12th, the Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation surged in January, gaining a half a point as the cost of gas, rents, and groceries went up. Egg prices rose 15.2%. 

Trump continued to play with tariffs. On February 10th, he levied 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel. Ford CEO Jim Farley deplored these: “So far what we’re seeing is a lot of cost and a lot of chaos.” On February 13th, Trump announced a new program of “reciprocal tariffs,” targeting countries that levy tariffs on products made in the US. Trump said, “Prices could go up somewhat short-term. But prices will also go down.”Most observers feel Trump has no idea how to fix the economy. (By the way: in Trump’s first 30 days, his spending per day is $ 4 Billion higherthan Biden’s was a year ago.) 

Immigration: Trump has declared a state of emergency and shut down all immigration (except for white Afrikaners). There were raids throughout the country, staffed by ICE personnel supplemented by members of the FBI, DEA, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. On February 6th, Dara Kerr ( https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/06/ice-us-immigration-deportations-google )wrote in the Guardian that the Trump Administration is waging a massive disinformation campaign regarding these deportations to make the numbers look good. ( https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/ice-struggles-to-boost-arrest-numbers-despite-infusion-of-resources/ar-AA1z7vGA ) 

In California, indications are that the undocumented detained do not have a criminal record. ( https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/02/11/it-was-just-a-regular-morning-californians-picked-up-in-recent-ice-raids-include-kids-volunteers/? ) On February11th, The Washington Post reported that two senior ICE officials have been demoted because immigration quotas have not been met. ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/02/15/ice-arrests-immigration-deportations/ .) After one month, Trump’s numbers lag Biden’s. 

Mass Firings: After one month, 77,000 federal employees accepted Trump’s buyout offer. Trump followed this by laying off thousands who had not completed their probationary period – the Washington Post estimated this would affect 200,000 employees. Among the agencies affected are the Center for Disease Control, Energy Department, IRS, National Park Service, and the Veteran’s Administration. 

Foreign Policy: After four weeks, Trump’s foreign policy has become clear. The US will withdraw from traditional alliances and go it alone. Trump has irritated most of our traditional allies, such as Canada and Mexico, and the European Union. On February 12th, Defense Secretary Hegseth told NATO that the US defense priorities “lie outside Europe.” 

1.Gaza: On February 4th, Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and offered a novel solution to the Gaza problem: all Gaza residents would move out – to either Egypt and Jordan – and Israel would hand over Gaza to the United States. We would clear it of rubble and explosives and then oversee the redevelopment. Despite pushback from Arab states, Trump maintains this position. 

2.Ukraine: Until this week it was unclear how Trump would approach the Ukraine war. Now it appears that Trump prefers to negotiate solely with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin. Going in, Trump is prepared to give Putin two things he wants: Russia could keep the Ukrainian territory it has seized, and the US would block Ukraine from joining NATO. To be determined is what security guarantees the US would give Ukraine. It’s rumored that the Ukraine could exchange access to its rare-earth resources for US support ( https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-us-minerals-security-future-i1.7456598 ). Europe will be excluded from ceasefire discussions. 

3.Targets: Trump has threatened to annex Greenland – owned by Denmark – and to occupy the Panama Canal – owned by Panama. Trump keeps talking about Canada becoming the 51st state. 

4.Tariffs: Trump’s tariffs have irritated Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Trump promises to expand the scope of these tariffs.March Fiscal Showdown: One month from now, the federal government will run out of funding; shortly thereafter we will hit the debt limit. How will Trump 2.0 respond? 

Donald Trump wants his 2017 tax cuts reauthorized (cost $4.5 trillion) and additional funds appropriated for Defense and Homeland Security ($300 billion). The GOP-controlled Senate and House are working on a response but have different approaches. The House has stuffed everything into “one big, beautiful bill.” To appease GOP fiscal conservatives, they’ve added $2 trillion in spending cuts, which include Medicaid and the SNAP program. 

The Senate has two bills. The first focuses on funds for Defense and Homeland Security. The second – scheduled for later in the year – features Trump’s tax cuts. It appears that, in March, the House and Senate are headed for a nasty confrontation. 

Summary: Donald Trump campaigned primarily on the economy and immigration. So far, he’s made inflation worse and hasn’t come near his promises on deportation. How long will it take Trump supporters to figure out that Trump isn’t keeping his promises?