Election Section

We’ve entered the final of three stages of the Kamala Harris presidential campaign. The first stage began on July 21st when Joe Biden decided not to run for President and endorsed Kamala. In this stage, Harris had to reintroduce herself to voters and prepare for the Democratic convention. The second stage began with the September 10th Harris-Trump debate. In this stage, Kamala had to elaborate her policy positions. Now we’ve reached the third stage: the race to the November 5th finish line: getting out the vote. 

Since the Harris-Trump debate, the polls have been relatively stable. According to the 538 website, Harris leads Trump by 2.6 percent. All the recent national polls have favored Harris, with a range from tied to Harris ahead by 6 percent. In the swing states, Harris is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Trump is narrowly ahead in Georgian, North Carolina, and Arizona. 

With 28 days to go, the Harris campaign has more money and a much better GOTV operation than the Trump campaign. (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/5/2274754/-Here-s-who-to-thank-for-the-Harris-campaign-s-historic-field-operation? ) Harris is doing a wide variety of media events. In contrast, Trump is decompensating. 

The Electorate: In the United States, there are more than 160 million registered voters. The latest Gallup poll says that 40 percent identify as Independent, 30 percent as Democrat, and 29 percent as Republican. 

Although there may be a handful of registered voters who are truly “undecided” about the Harris-Trump contest – because they are living in caves – most Americans have made up their minds: they will vote for Harris or Trump or neither. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump got 74 million votes (47 percent of the total), and Joe Biden got 81 million (51 percent). 

There are four categories of 2024 Trump voters: True believers: these are individuals who have swallowed the Kool Aid and become members of the Trump cult. Inflexible Republicans: these are individuals who only vote Republican and will hold their noses and vote for Trump. (For example, Nikki Haley.) Single-issue voters: these are individuals who vote based upon one key issue – such as abortion – and favor Trump because he says he supports their position. Sexist/Racist voters: these are voters who won’t vote for Harris because she is a woman and a person of color. (By the way: 2024 Trump voters understand that Trump does not support Democracy and will not defend the Constitution.) 

We’ve entered the final phase of the 2024 election. While most voters have made up their minds, a few say they are undecided. Many of these are shy voters: they know who they will vote for but don’t want to publicize it. Some of these are frightened voters. Imagine a pro-Harris woman in a family of Trumpers; she wouldn’t want to advertise who she was voting for. I believe an overwhelming majority of “undecided” voters will vote for Harris.  

Getting out the vote: Kamala Harris will win the presidency, if her supporters vote. 

The 2024 Trump campaign is built on a shock and awe” model. They expected to run against Joe Biden and spent their early money tearing Biden down. The Trump campaign figured that would demoralize Democrats, who would not vote. The Trump campaign never expected Biden to withdraw and be replaced by Harris; therefore, they never built a mature get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation. Now they need it, but it’s too late. 

At this stage, Kamala’s campaign has substantial assets: she has a slight polling lead. Kamala has higher favorability ratings than Trump. Harris voters are more enthusiastic than Trump voters. She has a much better GOTV operation.  

Kamala Harris will win decisively if Democrats get out the vote.