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It’s been two months since Joe Biden decided not to run for President and endorsed Kamala Harris. Before July 21st I expected Joe to drop out and hand the ball to Kamala. I thought she would be a fine replacement for Joe. Kamala has exceeded my expectations. 

Since July 21st Kamala has formed a powerful campaign organization, selected an outstanding candidate for vice-president, held an effective convention, won a presidential debate, and raised a ton of money – several times more than Trump. Most important, she has energized Democrats, and they are now more enthusiastic than Republicans. 

Before Biden dropped out, many Americans griped that the 2024 presidential contest featured two old men. Now there is a clear contrast between 78-year-old Donald Trump, a grumpy white guy, and 59-year-old Kamala Harris, a joyful mixed-race woman. Seeing them debate, or watching their campaign events back-to-back, I’m struck by their differences. Voters have noticed this: Trump has a 10-point negative favorability, Harris is slightly positive. As Kamala introduced herself, she’s gotten more popular. 

Harris leads Trump by 3 points in the 538 polls of polls. It's surprising that Kamala has not opened a bigger lead over Trump. On the other hand, two months ago, Trump had a four-point lead over Biden. So far, Kamala has done a fine job, and I expect her to win, even if she is a woman of color. 

Surprises: It’s been two months of surprises, starting with Biden’s resignation. I’ve been surprised by Kamala’s skill as an orator; she’s drawing bigger crowds than Trump. I’ve been surprised that Trump has had trouble adapting to candidate Harris; he’s flailing. 

What happens next? The race is uncomfortably tight, but Kamala has the momentum and more money. By all reports, Democrats are doing a better job of registering new voters and building a GOTV organizations in the swing states. (It may be hyperbole, but it’s widely believed that instead of investing in getting out the vote, Republicans have invested in blocking the vote; that is, keeping votes from being counted.) 

Early voting has started. Harris wants another debate, but Trump has declined. I expect Trump to keep doing what he has been doing. In October, I expect the Harris campaign to change: Kamala will begin to have ‘town-hall” style events in the swing states – events where she takes questions from the audience. And, I believe the Harris campaign will have several giant rallies featuring stars like Beyonce and Taylor Swift 

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